Leo XIV: How long does a transition last?

The possible Lefebvrian schism is the first major crisis Leo XIV has faced since his election as Pope. The pontiff, whose mandate was to resolve conflicts in the Church, finds himself dealing with a very combative group of priests and bishops who have decided, to preserve their aging hierarchy, to ordain new bishops without a papal mandate.

This week, things moved closer to schism.

In a statement, Cardinal Victor Manuel Fernandez, prefect of the Dicastery for the Doctrine of the Faith, reiterated that the Priestly Fraternity of St. Pius X, the so-called Lefebvrians, will incur excommunication latae sententiae if they decide, as previously announced, to proceed with the ordination of several new bishops.

The declaration was not only a necessary act, but one that brightly marked a point of no return. It also highlighted how far from complete the transition to the pontificate of Leo XIV still is.

On the one hand, this sort of gamesmanship from the SSPX is nothing new under the sun. The Lefebvrists did the same in 1988, when they incurred the excommunication latae sententiae after they had ordained four bishops without papal mandate, and this situation was not remedied for twenty years, until Benedict XVI decided to revoke the excommunication in the hope of creating the basis for dialogue and renewed unity in the Church.

The Fraternity is making this decision at a time when the traditionalist movement within the Church appears to be particularly strong. The images of the latest Paris-Chartres pilgrimages are plain for all to see, while the surge in adult baptisms (mostly traditionalist) in France has led the Archdiocese of Paris itself to consider the issue with an ad hoc regional council of the Île-de-France  area.

The Society, however, finds itself in a different situation from that of 1988. Beyond various personal sympathies, the SSPX lacks a charismatic figure like Archbishop Lefebvre, who nevertheless had a reputation as a missionary of great ability and could count on solid alliances even within the Vatican.

It was Lefebvre who forced the hand, just as the Holy See was trying at all costs to avoid the ordination and therefore the excommunication latae. sententiae . And immediately after the schism, the Holy See established the Ecclesia Dei Commission, later suppressed by Pope Francis, and also the Fraternity of St. Peter, which is the Vatican’s response to the traditionalist movement: one can remain in the Church while celebrating according to the ancient rite.

Among other things, the Fraternity received significant support from Pope Francis in an audience that followed the apostolic letter Traditionis. Custodians of Pope Francis, who effectively repealed the liberalization of celebrations according to the vetus ordo.

In short, the announcement of the SSPX comes at a very different time from that in which the first schism was defined, and certainly with support within the Church that has, in some way, been absorbed.

Cardinal Fernandez’s announcement, which came with an official statement, therefore has the flavor of an unsolicited declaration of war. Fernandez had already met with the Fraternity’s prior, Father Davide Pagliarani, and the Dicastery’s statement on the meeting clearly explained that if the Lefebvrians went ahead with the ordinations, they would face excommunication.

For their part, the Lefebvrists played a sophisticated game. They asked for mercy, effectively appealing to one of the pillars of Pope Francis’s pontificate and taking advantage of a positive attitude rooted in the belief that canon law should never be punitive. They emphasized, however, that their decision responds to a broader crisis.

And, finally, they issued an appeal for the true faith. Furthermore, Father Davide Pagliarani granted a lengthy interview, in which he reiterated their positions but appeared quite reasonable and eager to meet Leo XIV.

Leo XIV decided not to intervene personally in the matter. In fact, however, Cardinal Fernandez used the credit of trust to forcefully launch a war, almost as if to imply that no one should be surprised if a schism occurred.

To what extent is Fernandez’s decision consistent with the pontificate of Leo XIV? To what extent is the declaration his own personal initiative, and to what extent not? And why a declaration now?

While this debate was raging, Leo XIV visited La Sapienza, the oldest university in Europe, founded by a Pope. Leo was going to the university where Benedict XVI had refused to go, following appeals and crossfire from professors against him.

The text of Leo XIV’s speech is interesting. It’s not a confessional speech, but it puts God back at the center of the mystery, emphasizes that culture is also a form of charity, and calls young people to overcome ideological polarizations. But it’s also a text that seems to ignore the elephant in the room: that very same university had rejected Benedict XVI’s arrival.

A recollection of this missed visit would not have been typical of Leo XIV. Yet, the speech seems to lack much bite, more like a scholastic discourse than a prophetic one. There was a reference to Augustine, but the centrality of Augustine, present in other papal speeches, was missing.

The question that lingers is: when will the transition from the pontificate of Francis to that of Leo XIV be completed? When will all the ghostwriters be different and more in keeping with the Pope’s personality? When will the prefects of the dicasteries lose the prominence that leads them to make official declarations even when there is likely no need?

Leo XIV is engaged in a long transition. Five heads of dicasteries are undergoing changes, others will leave over the next year, but in other cases, Leo XIV will simply wait until retirement or the end of his mandate. This is a way to avoid internal crises and to develop judgment, allowing the people who will carry out papal decisions to grow.

For the next two or three years, however, we will find ourselves with a multi-speed pontificate. On one side, the Pope, with his personal decisions, his handwritten speeches, and his desire to absorb the Church’s conflicts. On the other hand, the collaborators from the previous pontificate, who need to show the world they weren’t wrong before, and who, in any case, cannot fully understand the new Pope.

Leo XIV thus risks being blocked by his own openness and trust in the current generation of curial leadership.

As the pope is faced with the first major crisis of his pontificate, we will see whether his trust is well placed.