Leo XIV: Nomination time

Rumors swirled last week surrounding the future of Archbishop Edgar Pena Parra, Sostituto of the Secretariat of State, some of them saying the long-serving papal “chief of staff” will become the pope’s next nuncio to Italy.

If confirmed, it would mark the beginning of a broad domino effect sweeping Vatican appointments, extending from the Secretariat of State to the Prefecture of the Papal Household, a veritable revamp of the government team.

One key element, however, would remain: Cardinal Pietro Parolin as Secretary of State.

Let’s proceed in order.

Ever since Leo XIV’s election, it has been rumored rumored that the Pope would replace the Secretary of State. The Sostituto – a powerful position inside the Roman Curia requiring arguably the closest day-to-day contact and collaboration with the pope – manages affairs and is responsible for the Pope’s autographed replies to various queries.

Basically, everything passes through the sostituto, who is incidentally the only senior official who can regularly walk in to see the pope without an appointment.

It stands to reason, then, that Pope Leo XIV should desire someone he knew and trusted to fill the role, someone who wasn’t a holdover from the reign of his immediate predecessor.

Leo, however, decided not to appoint a successor to Pena Parra immediately. There were at least two good reasons for that. First, Leo XIV wanted a complete handover, and therefore wanted to understand all the files and matters handled by the sostituto before proceeding with a changeover.

Second, moving Pena Parra from the sostituto’s role is not a simple matter, because the only real promotion is to the cardinalate. For this reason, a post as head of dicastery was also being considered.

Instead, the idea of sending him as nuncio – that is, returning him to the active diplomatic service – has gained traction. Some have mentioned the prestigious United States nunciature for him, but having a Venezuelan ambassador in Washington would likely have been complicated.

The nunciature in Italy is prestigious, but more remote from the halls of Vatican power than mere geography suggests. Pena Parra would be the third non-Italian in a row to hold the post, after Pope Francis, by appointing Archbishop Tscherrig (later a cardinal) to that position in 2017, broke the unwritten rule of long standing, according to which the nunciature to Italy should have an Italian in the top job.

If Pena Parra becomes nuncio to Italy, it means the current nuncio, Archbishop Peter Rajic, is destined for a new assignment.

The new post would be that of Prefect of the Papal Household, as early rumors have long suggested. Leo XIV would thus restore the role of head of his “family,” while it is possible that a new post will be found for the current regent, Monsignor Leonardo Sapienza, whose place would be taken by the current vice-regent, Father Eduard Daniang Daleng OSA.

There is also talk of a new assignment for Archbishop Paul Richard Gallagher, Vatican Minister for Relations with States, who could leave Vatican foreign policy to take up a post as head of acurial dicastery. This post would no longer be—as previously rumored—that of prefect of the Dicastery for Integral Human Development, which would instead be assigned to Cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerich, who would be called from Luxembourg.

The Sostituto’s desk would then remain vacant.

That would mean an open place for Archbishop Gabriele Caccia, currently the Holy See’s observer to the United Nations. Caccia was an assessor at the Secretariat of State when Parolin was undersecretary for Relations with States and was ordained bishop and appointed nuncio for the first time alongside the current Secretary of State in 2009.

The grand return of Caccia to Rome, however, is not a foregone conclusion.

Caccia is also considered a prime candidate to become nuncio to Washington, and in both cases, he would have the strong support of Cardinal Parolin, who could work with a friend in Rome or rely on a trusted person to manage relations with the United States, at a particularly delicate time in history.

In all these scenarios, Cardinal Parolin emerges as the clear winner.

Everyone thought Leo XIV would replace the Secretary of State, but not only has this change not happened, but it doesn’t even appear close. At a time when at least five heads of department will have to be replaced because they have reached retirement age – Czerny , Semeraro, Roche, Koch, Farrell (plus You, who turns 75 in November) – even changing the Secretary of State or the rest of the team would create too great a power vacuum, and an even greater management challenge.

Parolin thus remains the man of continuity.

If Rajic becomes Prefect of the Papal Household, the Secretariat of State’s request, which has always preferred a diplomat to lead the Pope’s family, will have been granted. It’s worth remembering that it is the Prefecture of the Papal Household, not the Protocol Office of the Secretariat of State, that manages the official audiences the Pope grants to heads of state and government.

If Caccia were to become a deputy or nuncio, Parolin would work with a trusted man. If Pena Parra were indeed appointed nuncio to Italy, Parolin would be the only person with strong influence in the Apostolic Palace, while his replacement would receive a transfer that doesn’t even include a promotion, and therefore smacks of punishment.

Pope Francis was often styled “the pope of surprises” but the Leonine pontificate has already shown how surprising it can be. So perhaps, for the substitute role, we can also expect Leo XIV to choose from among the ranks of Vatican diplomats and look to a trusted man outside the Vatican Secretariat of State, or at least outside any preconceived notions.

That would demonstrate the Pope’s willingness and ability to discern among government choices he can delegate and those in which personal relationships and trust need to take priority.

Certainly, Leo XIV’s appointments reveal a different nature and approach to managing problems compared to the previous pontificate. While Francis loved to divide, create asymmetry in government, and shuffle the cards, Leo XIV prefers to unite, maintain cohesion, and rely on those familiar with the territory or the procedures.

Leo’s preferences in these regards are also demonstrated by his appointment last week of four new auxiliaries of the diocese of Rome, all Roman priests – a choice that runs counter to the trend set by Pope Francis, who called diocesan bishops from outside.

This is also demonstrated by the choice of Archbishop Filippo Iannone as prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops.

It is demonstrated by his choice of his personal secretaries, both young and without any experience of the Curia.

If this is the Pope’s general line, then we can expect some surprises in key positions. The generational change will likely be slow, but it could also lead to a new face in Church governance.
When that happens, we will stop seeking continuity and discontinuity with the previous pontificate.

It will simply be the pontificate of Leo XIV.