Leo XIV: Towards his first red hats

So far, Leo XIV’s government has been characterized by extraordinary prudence and a certain continuity. The Pope has made only a few relatively minor adjustments, without touching his immediate predecessor’s broad reform framework. He has retained the idea of synodality, but without giving it the central importance it had, at least narratively, during the Francis pontificate. He has almost always drawn on men who had been Pope Francis’s.

There will soon be a moment, however, when Leo XIV’s pontificate will have to take definitive shape, and that will be when the pope convenes a consistory to create new cardinals. From the choices he will make of men to receive the new red hats, wl learn a great deal about the man making the choices.

This is generally the case, and there is every reason to think Leo is unexceptional in this regard, at least. When Leo XIV was elected, 134 cardinal electors entered the Sistine Chapel, the largest number in history.

Paul VI had set the maximum number of cardinal electors at 120, and this rule has never been changed. But Popes can make exceptions. John Paul II had already exceeded the limit of 120 electors, but it was somewhat of a calculated move, as he knew that many cardinals would soon turn 80 and therefore would be excluded from the number of cardinal electors. In fact, the Conclave that elected Benedict XVI had fewer than 120 cardinal electors. Leo XIV is not a man to make exceptions to established rules and traditions, and so he has so far waited for the number of cardinal electors to decrease. Currently, there are 116 cardinal electors, leaving four less than the limit of 120.

It is unlikely, however,  that Leo XIV’s first Consistory will be reduced to a minimum of four cardinals. However, scrolling through the list of members of the College of Cardinals,  one notices that 12 cardinals will turn 80 next year. Therefore, at the end of 2027, there will be 104 cardinal electors. This allows Leo XIV to assign 16 red hats. He could do so, however, by briefly exceeding the limit of 120, knowing that the total number of electors would be at or under the limit of 120, one way or another, in fairly short time.

Persistent rumors speak of a consistory to create new cardinals in February. Leo XIV, however, has said he intends to hold a discussion consistory at least twice a year, and has already held two: one in January 2026, another in June of the same year. It is therefore likely that another discussion consistory will be held in February, and it is possible that the pope will create new cardinals on that occasion. With sixteen possible new red hats, what profiles will Leo XIV look for? The question is legitimate, and some early decisions on the Leonine pontificate may offer some indication.

Pope Francis didn’t necessarily associate the red hat with a traditionally cardinalatial see. It so happens that, at this time, important dioceses such as Milan, Paris, and Venice do not have a cardinal at their helm. There has also been an asymmetrical distribution of red hats and episcopates within Vatican dicasteries.

For example, Cardinal Fabio Baggio was undersecretary of the Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development when he became a cardinal and remained so until his recent appointment as pro-prefect of the same dicastery by Leo XIV.

Cardinal Baggio’s appointment as pro-prefect would suggest that Leo XIV will have a more rational and hierarchical distribution of the cardinalate. While the Dicastery for Religious needed a cardinal pro-prefect to assist Sister Simona Brambilla in her role as prefect—because a bishop’s authority was needed to adjudicate certain cases—this is not the case for the Dicastery for Integral Human Development, which instead has more structured responsibilities regarding the Church’s social doctrine.

Thus, Curia positions could return to cardinals. The prime suspect is obviously Archbishop Filippo Iannone, prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops. But Archbishop Anthony Randazzo, prefect of the Dicastery for Legislative Texts, should also receive a red hat, according to this logic. It remains to be seen how Leo XIV will proceed with the “provisions” of the major cities. In Milan, Archbishop Delpini turned 75 and, at Leo’s request, remained at the helm of Europe’s largest archdiocese while awaiting the appointment of a successor.

This successor will likely take the cardinal’s hat. In Paris, Archbishop Laurent Ulrich will also turn 75 in September. Therefore, it will presumably be his successor who will become a cardinal.

The complicated world of the United States remains to be seen, as some cardinals will have to retire: Cardinal Blaise Cupich, Archbishop of Chicago, is already nearly 80 years old and will need to be replaced in the pope’s “home” diocese. It was thought that Leo XIV wanted to keep him in office until his trip to the United States, but now that the trip may not be imminent—in an interview with NBC, the Pope spoke of the next two years—the replacement should not be postponed.

Who will succeed Cupich? Will Cupich’s successor be created a cardinal?

The still new-ish Archbishop of New York, Ronald Hicks, is another fellow waiting for a red hat. Generally, cardinals’ hats were not awarded to resident archbishops while their predecessors were still of voting age. Pope Francis broke this unwritten rule when he wanted to. For example, Cardinal Francis Leo is the current archbishop of Toronto, but his predecessor, Cardinal Christopher Collins, will turn 80 in early 2027, so Toronto had two cardinals in the last conclave.

This provision, however, directly affects Brussels, because Pope Francis created Cardinal Jozef de Kesel, who will turn 80 next year, but did not create his predecessor, André-Joseph Leonard, a cardinal, and Kesel’s successor, Archbishop Luc Terlinden, is not yet a cardinal. Could he, therefore, also become a cardinal? It remains to be seen whether Leo XIV will adopt a geographical approach or pursue a genuine reform of Church thought.

The profiles of the cardinals he chooses will tell us more than a little about which direction he will take, whatever their roles happen to be. Another telltale will be how the upcoming “business” consistories are structured. So far, Leo XIV has continued the synodal method tested in Pope Francis’s last consistory. The Pope himself, however, has admitted that not everyone appreciates this method.

Indeed, discussions in the Church seem stuck on a few specific themes: the role of the Synod and synodality, the question of liturgy and dialogue with the traditional world, and many ideologized issues, such as peace in social doctrine or the reception of migrants. The entry of new members into the College of Cardinals could revitalize the debate or at least shift perspective. And perhaps it will be the moment when we understand whether Leo XIV truly intends a pontificate of change, and if so, what kind of change and how much.